This just in - MySpace to get pwn3d by Google

A couple of days ago, I made some Fearless Predictions about the future of social networking, including the observation that MySpace was becoming the new AltaVista… and today, we have news that MySpace and Google are negotiating a new deal for how MySpace will display Google advertising.  A few years ago, when MySpace was hot-as-the-sun, Google ended up paying $900m, or about $300m/year.  These days, MySpace is losing users and traffic, at a clip of about 20% per year, and now MySpace needs Google much more than Google needs MySpace…

Sources say that while Google has gotten plenty of advertising impressions (MySpace uses any excuse to put Google search results and Google ads in front of users), those ads don’t convert well. Add to that the dramatic shrinking of MySpace page views and the predictive modeling gets ugly.

Google knows MySpace is shrinking by about 20% a year. And unlike the last time they negotiated with News Corp., they now have nearly three years of actual operating history with the company. They’ve got real data to value the deal.

Unless Microsoft or perhaps Yahoo comes in and bids very aggressively, MySpace is going to get slaughtered in the negotiations.

Like I said, MySpace = AltaVista…  doomed.

Thirty Helens Agree - Facebook Fanclubs are out-of-control

Facebook must be a fascinating place for Sociologists to watch, because popular-trends grow, evolve, and die at an accelerated rate there.  The first one I experienced was the, “25 Things About Me” notes… seeming it started slowly, but with a frequency that let you know that it was going to eventually explode.  Then came the “Top-5 Craze”, where folks posted the five NFL teams they hated the most, or the 5 movies they know by heart, etc…  to a certain extent, Top-5’s still pop-up, but a lot less these days. Currently, the “Quiz Craze” dominates Facebook, where you take a quiz to see which Friends character ‘you are’, or the ideal city for you, and so on. However, a new trend is quickly emerging, which promises to be much more annoying than any of the previous ones… as the “Quiz Craze” quickly fades, the “Fan Club for Everything Craze” is cranking up to be huge.

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Thirty Helens Agree - Category names are important

During the first season of The Kids In The Hall, there was a reoccurring skit where 30 women named Helen would agree on something totally obvious.  Things like, “Honesty is the best policy”, or “Tattoos aren’t for everyone”.  Frequently some Helen’s would be highlighted to further carry the argument.  When summing up their agreement on, “You can’t pay too much for a sensible pair of shoes”, one Helen exclaimed, “My god, your feet are what you walk on!”  Only once did the 30 Helen’s disagree, when only 29 of them agree that, “Punctuality is important”.  Controversy exists, to this day, over whether the 30th Helen also agreed, but was unfortunately delayed, or if she truly disagrees.

In honor of these ladies, and their timeless wisdom, I’m bringing back the “Thirty Helens Agree” category, where I too will state the obvious… or, at least, what should be obvious.

Don’t be evil! Oh, wait…

For years, Google’s corporate motto was, interestingly enough, “Don’t be evil”.  Interesting in that Google hasn’t been exactly angelic…  they allow pretty much anyone to infringe on trademarks, unless that trademark happens to be owned by Google.  Recently, researcher Ben Edelman discovered a pattern of Google inflating performance metrics for its AdWords advertising platform, and in such a way that - conveniently - allows Google to bill clients for traffic, Edelman claims, that the advertiser should have received free.  Now, it appears that Google is turning their mathematical algorithms to determine…  wait for it…  which of their existing employees are likely to quit and go to a different employer.

I guess it’s a good thing that Google has, quietly, dropped “Don’t Be Evil” as their motto…

The future of Social Networks

To know the future, just look to the past.  Each of the big Social Networking, “Web 2.0″, sites share commonalities with Web 1.0 sites that were popular ‘in their day’…  and this is not necessarily a good thing for the Social Networks.  For example:

Flickr is the new GeoCities…  a very popular place for people to upload their content.  Getting people to upload and view content is one thing, but turning that into a profitable business is another.
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This day - on the 405

Irony has a physical form…  it has mass and it can be touched.  It is a Toyota Prius.  Only a car that takes SO much energy to create could be sold as energy-effecient.  Only a car with hundreds of pounds of batteries, containing the most foul toxic soup, could be sold as “Green”…  I’m willing to bet that, taking production, usage, and disposal, into consideration, a Prius is no more-or-less environmentally friendly than a Hummer.

All this is lost, of course, on the driver in front of me on the 405 today…  don’t worry, traffic was stopped dead, so I had time to bust out the iPhone and snap this pic.  It’s a bit hard to read, but the license plate frame reads:  “Prius…  Undercompensating”.

Uh, not if you have to put it on your car, dude…